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Friday, January 29, 2016

Forecasts for Tech: By 2020, observers can expect to see China’s total retail consumption jump 50 percent to $6.5 trillion, with online transactions accounting for half of that growth. And 70 percent of those e-tail purchases will be conducted via mobile devices. Over that same five-year period, cross-border e-commerce will have grown so high—to $152.1 billion—that it will represent one-third of the country’s total foreign trade.
So say think tanks and research firms watching the world’s second-largest economy as it transitions from its former manufacturing base to one driven by consumption. The predictions were issued by Alibaba Research Institute, the research arm of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, as part of its inaugural “Think Tank Summit on the New Economy” held Saturday in Beijing.
The new annual event brought together over 600 thought leaders to look at ahead at the next five years in Chinese commerce. A panel of judges surveyed research from the 40 participating organizations and picked “10 Forecasts for the New Economy,” which focused not only on the importance of e-commerce but also the impact that the Internet will have China’s manufacturing, logistics, rural economy and society. The use of data, too, culled from billions of transactions as Chinese consumers buy and sell goods and services online, will also play a key role.
“China today is in the midst of transforming from an industrial-driven economy to a data-driven economy,” Gao Hongbing, dean of AliResearch and vice president of Alibaba Group, said in a statement. “These 10 forecasts are a small part of our observation and thinking, and we hope they can play a part in stimulating further deliberation on the society’s future development.”
Bain & Co. predicted that China’s online retail market would reach $1.52 trillion, accounting for 22 percent of the country’s retail industry, with maternity and baby products being the strongest category and third-and fourth-tier cities driving a significant part of the growth. The Boston-based management consultancy also said that mobile Internet would make up 70 percent of all online sales.
Bain put the total figure for cross-border e-commerce in China at $152 billion, with AliResearch in a separate prediction saying it expects cross-border e-commerce to make up one-third of China’s foreign trade in five years. The China Center for International Economic Exchanges said “e-international trade” will change how trade overall is done and that it will account for account for 30 percent to 40 percent of total world trade by 2025.
Boston Consulting Group estimated that China’s consumer market will climb $2.3 trillion, or 50 percent, to $6.5 trillion by the close of the decade. Online will account for 42 percent of that growth, the management consultancy said.
The Internet would also penetrate all rural areas of China, according to Zhejiang University’s China Academy for Rural Development. As a result, the Information Research Department of the State Information Center of China said the sharing economy will rise to full prominence given this full penetration of broadband coverage in China. The Institute of Information Society Studies said China would have a “soft law” system providing a framework for Internet governance by 2020 as well.
The other predictions included one from the Information Society 50 Forum & Department of Sociology and Anthropology at Peking University, which said that data will digitize how consumers are assessed, say, in providing individual recommendations. The Information Society also noted that the vast reams of data collected as consumers buy and sell goods online will as a result erode some of their privacy.
ZenCoo, meanwhile, predicted that social measurement and cognitive experiments will replace statistical sampling, revolutionizing the fundamental theories of many disciplines including psychology, sociology, economics, and communications.
And finally, according to the Data Center of China Internet, the 3D printing market will reach $15.2 billion, with households using them the most.
ali research summit

The 2016 Think Tank Summit on New Economy was hosted by AliResearch. Representatives from dozens of think tanks including Bain & Company, McKinsey & Company, The Boston Consulting Group, National School of Development at Peking University, School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China and National Academy of Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences discussed and exchanged deeply on topics such as "China and the world", "traditional economy and new economy", "rural e-commerce", "cross-border e-commerce", "cloud computing and big data" and "platform governance".

Long Yongtu and Zeng Ming, Chief Strategy Officer of Alibaba Group, gave speeches respectively before the opening of the summit.

Long Yongtu was highly in favor of the eWTO initiative proposed by Alibaba Group. He said that establishing new rules for international economy and trade in the DT age was a very good idea which could involve all interested parties of the new economy including governments, enterprises, communities, experts, scholars and international organizations equally to work together positively to establish new rules that are open, fair, efficient and inclusive for international economy and trade in the data age. He indicated that this was very significant because it was not only beneficial to the transformation and upgrade of China's economic society but also expected to have positive effect on promoting the economic and social development of all countries in the world.

Zeng Ming said in the speech that Taobao was a miracle in the history of human economic development which had evolved from a simple online marketing and retail platform to today's Internet economic entity which had taken shape. The biggest value of Taobao is creating an online market with huge network effect. Great amounts of buyers and sellers are gathered on the same online market, which greatly improved the matching efficiency. The horizontal cooperation platform of reticular synergy is the basic structure of the business paradigm in the Internet age, which will replace the pyramid economic structure of vertical management in the age of industrial economy and promote great development of social productivity. The typical feature of the industrial economy's paradigm is "line": assembly line, supply chain and bureaucracy; while the basic feature of the Internet economy's paradigm will be "net".

In the following session with the topic of "China and the world", Ian Morris, an American historian and a professor at Stanford University, Hu Angang, Director of Center for China Studies at Tsinghua University, Simon Baptist, Chief Economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Wang Wen, Executive Director of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China made predictions and expectations about China's economy and the world economy from different perspectives.

Ian Morris analyzed the reason why the West rose in modern times and dominated the world while the East remained silent for many years from the historical and geographical angles. He considered that the geographical factors decided the pace of social development of all countries around the world in the past. However, the development of the Internet has changed this key factor. Fortune and power are possible to shift, and it is highly uncertain who will dominate the new economy in the future.

Hu Angang considered that in spite of the current national economic downturn, China's economy in the period of the "13th Five-year Plan" had conditions and abilities to reach the growth goal—the actual growth rate exceeds 7%, and to realize the improvement of speed and efficiency of economic growth. In his opinion, there are "five engines" that will stimulate China's economic growth in the following five years: new urbanization, new industrialization, networking, informatization, agricultural modernization and infrastructure modernization, among which the biggest engine is the modernization of infrastructure construction. The popularization of new business infrastructure represented by cloud computing and big data will become the strong engine for China's economic development. Baptist outlined the map of the world economy in 2020 in the speech.

Simon Baptist considered that the economic recovery of the US had obvious performance. The wages for workers are rising and the interest policy of the Federal Reserve also shows great confidence in the economy. The Europe and Japan are still struggling, with the political and currency issues troubling their development. Although China's economic growth is slowing down, the growth rate is still very rapid considering China's economic scale. By 2030, China will become the largest economy.

Wang Wen indicated that according to the data estimation in 2014, China's rate of economic contribution to the whole world reached 49.77% while that of the US was only 35%. In his opinion, this situation made some people view China from two points of view in the past: China threat theory and China collapse theory. Wang Wen considered that "the Belt and Road Initiative" gave the points of view the best response—"There is no threat or collapse. We will provide products for the whole world, connect both ends of Europe and Asia and gradually form a unified large market".

Participating experts also conducted very valuable comparison and analysis on new economy and traditional economy. Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, considered that the Internet revolution, the Internet and entity economy were speeding up integration and developing into the new entity economy which grew rapidly. The Internet will lead many industries to have revolutionary changes. Taking the manufacturing industry as an example, Germany's Industry 4.0, the US's Internet industry and China's Made in China 2025 all aim to promote the development of the manufacturing industry by means of intelligence, flexibility and process reengineering, etc. She indicated that "the business model of the new-generation manufacturing industry will be completely different from that of the traditional manufacturing industry, and the e-international trade proposed by Alibaba will be the most vital in the future".

Xia Jiechang, Vice President of National Academy of Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, indicated that the rise of service economy would be an epochal change which had great significance for China's economy. He emphasized that without information technology and service represented by the Internet and big data, the production efficiency would be low, and people's lifestyle would be inconvenient with no security assurance.

Gao Hongbing, Vice President of Alibaba Group and Director of AliResearch, elaborated three core ideas—the integration of rules, models and technologies. Technology is very important and is constantly changing the world. However, behind technology are the innovation of business models and the change of rules. The generation of TCP/IP is the most important in the Internet. The informatization transition of business models needs rethink, redefinition, discussion and communication.

He pointed out that China's economy and the world economy were undergoing unprecedented change and all circles ardently expected them to get rid of the set pattern and gain a new life. He hoped that more researchers and think tanks around the world would participate in the research of new economy and new governance. At the summit, Gao Hongbing also mentioned the new economy research framework of AliResearch which was like a "scaffold" serving further research by more think tanks and researchers.

Lu Xipeng, the host of the summit from School of Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, and Li Peiyu, Editor-in-Chief of China Business Journal jointly announced "Heading for 2020: Ten Predictions on New Economy by Think Tanks". The predictions were initiated by the organizing committee of the 2016 Think Tank Summit on New Economy and participated by dozens of think tanks around the world.

Ten predictions included: By 2020, China's online retail market scale will be quadrupled compared with 2014 and "buying things from all over the world" will come true (predicted by Bain & Company); by 2020, China's "soft law" system with platform governance as its core will take shape and become the standard commonly observed by the industry (Institute for Information Society Studies); by 2020, the market value of 3D printing will exceed RMB 100 billion and homemade products will become the mainstream (DCCI); cross-border e-commerce will account for 1/3 of China's foreign trade and eWTO will become the new platform and new mechanism for research and negotiation on international trade rules (AliResearch).

Representatives of think tanks, including Gao Peiyong, President of National Academy of Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Yang Yongheng, Assistant Dean of School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Zhang Xinhong, Director of Research Department of State Information Center and Executive Chairperson of Information Society 50 Forum, Chen Yougang, global partner of McKinsey & Company and leader of McKinsey Global Institute in China, and Ding Jie, global partner of Bain & Company and leader of Digitization Institute in China, shared their ideas on new economy and new governance respectively.

On the afternoon, the participating experts conducted in-depth discussions on four topics: rural e-commerce, cross-border e-commerce, big data and platform governance.

At last, Jin Jianhang, President of Alibaba Group, said in the speech that since 2008 and 2009, the State Administration for Industry & Commerce of the People's Republic of China had conducted system design which was very good, profound, very sincere and future-oriented with Alibaba and many market participants. The most important system design is that a natural person can conduct commodity transactions on the platform after providing his/her real-name authentication. Industrial and commercial registration was necessary in the past, but a big opening has been provided for commerce which is equal to limited liability companies and the safe harbor principle of the Internet. The most important breakthrough in sharing economy and platform economy is personal access.

He indicated that the research institute of Alibaba was willing to regard itself as a think tank platform. We do not regard ourselves as an institution with arbitrary resources, arbitrary data and arbitrary ideas. We are willing to be open. We are willing to work together with all the people who aspire to face a new DT age in an age with new enterprise and national understanding.

He also made a bold prediction, "Several years later, a law will be released which will stipulate that human beings cannot drive cars and driving cars will be defined as an illegal behavior. This day is possibly coming soon."

Monday, January 11, 2016

to joann , iris john, amy, peter, michael, bernardo and anyone else interested in educators empowering youth most brilliant decade - proposed 5 jan potomac maryland by harrison owen seconded by Amy

economistuniversity.com extra contextual urgencies of brooklyn premier of global youth empowerment include:
 to friends of pope francis (and world bank jim kim's_ preferential option poor mindset as last event staged within first 6 months of his speech at UN 

and to rome coordinators of nobel peace laureates summits both of whose black student empowerment summits were postponed - atlanta nov 2015 due to celebrate king family, cape town 2014 due to celebrate mandela curriculum

skype format is best as in mixing live and non-synced
if possible anyone on TO list, please confirm your skypes - many of the craziest concepts to connect youths brilliant decade need iteration (or amy and chinese female millennials moderation -the millennial delicacy of social mediation where it was previously banned needs every open and transparency skill ever rehearsed since 1975 prediction of The Economist of china as millennials lead collaboration nation of sustainability goals and then some ) 

apart from open space itself, we are missing the biggest creative conference trick of all that i have been free to observe

before your main break, 10 march lunch - empower 15 by one minute pitches - where pitcher either knows her pitch  will stream directly into  a poster show during lunch or be a breakout in the afternoon 

as  amy explained to many of you this is how and why berkeley sets the bar with each apps class of students -can you beat your best ever peers solution from this competition - give directly? potentially the greatest net generation change to american system of aid in 70 years and now branching its global village networks out of new york epicentre - starting with kenya region and presumably ihub partnership

so as well as whomever are the 4 alternative afternnon breakouts -  1- minute poster pitches could we invite -my choices would include

fab lab from marinez (eel1) possibly with emeka okafor the origin of africans hosting tedx and makerfaire as far as I now

 a pitch from xprize learning panel on why ny suburbs doubling in size will be absolute chaos unless ny in 10 years time is as famous for worldwide investment in livelihoods of sustainability as wall street has made it over big bang years for extracting from nature's once abundantly borderless planet

demonstration of yazmi satellite channel for refugee livelihoods beaming across africa, middle east and up south europe as far as rome

a pitch on how valuing millennials summit will review the first year of sustainability goal 11 (communities , cities) from vatican partnership leaders out of Quito (unhabitat 3 oct 2016)

peer to peer financial literacy teaching from graduate student at eel1

as stimulated by moore film -black and every culture's history of future told from view point of empowering positive youth dreams into reality-mec could make a meta-blog of this like huffington post even if it failed to deal with khan academy or on-demand coursera (nancy coaches youth like amy on the practicum originally sponsored by carnegie to realilty-making of dream concepts - see also triple issue of journal of marketing management i edited in 1999 on that higher purpose of media challenge)

a pitch of la maestra - who in san diego  the only sustained epicentre of microcredit in usa - how baltimore is learning to replicate it; invitation for brooklyn to join the party

a pitch of why conscious capitalism would benefit from an inter-university student chapter - how eg this could help roll out of next social action movies of kiehl's soundtrack studio including one on mackey's favorite subject nutrition

a pitch on social shark tank - both running at mec and through associate projects - we could invite north carolina guests - the most successful of the yunus statewide challenges - ryan now working on UBER of graduate livelihoods and Ivonna (world bank start up student winner- for last mile heath service test solution of ending anaemia

a pitch of first year of collaborations ihub is inviting mec to join in after kenya exchanges

a youth pitch of each other nydev-mec country exchange on the diary

can mec library make a catalogue of every relevant community organisation in mecs catchment area 

a pitch from the world largest school city montessori lucknow on how children can coach most illiterate adults to read a newspaper in 90 days

(iris i forgot to ask was any of moore evening filmed  - if so can i come and see that)


all of the above we can already find  pitchers  -next lets get big apple cheeky
send out invitations to anyone in new york you might want to partner

to give directly
to acumen born oit of novogratz's life as a 20 year old in nairobi

to google asking them to help with what google south africa does to google brooklyn- namely it starts a competition with local business - the business judged to offer a most viable apprenticeship are offered free advice by google on their online presence
from someone on where will end poverty tedx premier next

from youth in boston on which new york network of nursing etc is going to become as useful a partner to jim kims old network and farmers current one as the boston university system is

a pitch on why dubai has opened last week a billion dollar philanthropy designing college placements for 15000 underpriveleged youth
global grameen's  pitch on the first 3 quarter of million social action alumni of european social solutions invading america

a pitch from windsor circles on how youth can colloaborate with bottom up un and broadband communities across india sponsored by infosys founder nilekani as his final testimony to the regions greatest pro-youth educator the late president kalam- recall while president he demanded students tear up non-sustainable curricula and teachers of anything non-sustainable to be early retired 2020

a pitch on the past winners alumni netwoirk of premio sciacca's vatican univeristy and why dean rolle is being nominated in 2016- how this links in to rome's other annual summit nobel peace laureates and two successive years of failing to celebrate black peace builders - yunus agents destroying king family celebrations in atlanta nov 2015; dalai lama advocates destroying celebrating mandela curriculum in cape town oct 2014

-what would you add?

cheers chris macrae  text 1 240 316 8157
Economistchina.net map 4 hemi- celebration 2018's anniversary 175: mediate end poverty  - co-creating economics and social concepts for sustaining millennials healthiest and wealthiest and most collaborative nation since 1975