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To:chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk

26 Apr at 16:36

This edition covers developments from April 9 - 23. You are receiving the standard version of the Monitor. Please note that receipt of the comprehensive list of all regional Belt and Road transactions and activities tracked by RWR now requires a premium subscription. Please contact us to learn more about our services, and feel free to share this newsletter with interested friends and colleagues. Subscribe to the Belt and Road Monitor Belt and Road at a Glance   Top Developments Belt and Road Forum: More Sustainability, Higher Quality  The second Belt and Road Forum is taking place in Beijing April 25-27. According to a draft communique distributed before the forum’s start, representatives from 37 countries will commit to financing practices that respect global debt goals and promote sustainable development. The communique also calls for local currency financing, addressing the danger of repayment obligations swelling as a result of currency volatility. These commitments reflect the imperative in Beijing to address the “debt trap diplomacy” narrative that has taken root since the last forum in 2017. The forum is being attended by representatives from 37 countries, including Japan,New Zealand, Italy, Portugal, and Austria. Several days earlier, on April 22,Jamaica announced that it would be joining the Belt and Road Initiative, adding to the roster of Latin America and Caribbean countries that have signed on in recent months. Peru reportedly also plans to sign a Belt and Road agreement during the forum. Despite Jokowi Win, BRI Faces Speed Bumps in Indonesia  It is all but confirmed that Indonesian President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) secured re-election in the country’s April 17 election. Widodo’s primary challenger, Prabowo Subianto, suggested, if victorious, that he would review Belt and Road Initiative projects, such as the Jakarta-Bandung high speed railway, so that Indonesia can get a “better deal.” While Widodo has said that he will improve Indonesia’s infrastructure, his re-election is not a sure sign of a smooth path for the Belt and Road in Indonesia. Indonesia’s investment chief, Tom Lebong, criticized the railway project just prior to the election, complaining that even cabinet officials were having trouble securing information. More recently, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Arrmanatha Nasir said, “If it won’t be profitable, it should not proceed.” East Coast Rail Link Back on Track at Lowered Cost The governments of Malaysia and China reached an agreement on April 11 to resume work on the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), which had been suspended for almost a year as part of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s election pledge to review Chinese infrastructure projects. The cost was revised downward from $15.81 billion to $10.7 billion, in part due to contractor China Communications Construction Company (CCCC)’s willingness to sign an MoU with Malaysia Rail Link (MRL) assuming the risks involved in rail operations and maintenance. The resumption, however, has not ended the controversy surrounding the project. On April 23, controversial blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin alleged that CCCC had been given 4,500 acres of land along the route for free as part of the renewed agreement. This has been disputed by government sources. CMEC Signs Contract to Upgrade Bulgaria's Port of Varna  On April 12, China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) signed a $135 million contract with Logistic Center Varna to upgrade the port of Varna, which is one of Bulgaria’s two main ports, located on the Black Sea’s west coast. As the general contractor, CMEC will be responsible for design, equipment procurement, civil engineering, and construction, as well as installation, commissioning, and training once the project is completed. While the contract is limited in scope, it does mark the first involvement of a Chinese contractor in port construction work on the Black Sea (notwithstanding dredging work in Crimea). CGN to Develop Reactors at Romania’s Cernavoda Nuclear Plant China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) and its subsidiary, CGN Central and Eastern Europe Investment, signed a preliminary agreement with Romanianpower producer Societatea Nationala Nuclearelectrica  on April 10 to establish a joint venture to develop two new reactors, units 3 and 4, at the Cernavoda nuclear plant. The plant currently has two reactors with the installed capacity of 700MW each. This is the latest step in the development of a deal that began in 2013, when CGN and Nuclearelectrica signed a letter of interest regarding the two units. Chinese, Russian Think Tanks Establish Joint Arctic Research Center   During the fifth International Arctic Forum held in St. Petersburg on April 10, the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology signed an agreement with the Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences toestablish the China-Russian Arctic Research Center, which will serve as the base for several joint Arctic expeditions and research projects in the future. Research done at the center will allow scientists to forecast ice conditions along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Tsingshan Expands Plans for Steel Plant, Power Station in Zimbabwe On April 23, Tsingshan Holding Group signed an MoU with Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines and Mining Development to expand the scope of an existing MoU todevelop a $1 billion steel plant in Mvuma and a 600MW thermal power station to supply power to the plant, that was signed in June 2018. The expanded MoU provides Tsingshan with a lithium concession for mining and value addition, doubles the ferrochrome production, and allows for exports in addition to domestic consumption. Tsingshan also plans to explore the possibility of building a railway line from landlocked Zimbabwe to Mozambique’s port of Beira. New Project Locations Data from IntelTrak, April 9 - 23. Subscribe to Inteltrak What They're Saying EU SPOKESPERSON Speaking to EURACTIV ahead of the 21st EU-China Summit "Every country is free to establish its investment objectives. At the same time, the EU has concerns over the socioeconomic and financial effects some of China’s investments can have." KARUNASENA KODITUWAKKU Sri Lankan Ambassador to China Addressing loan replayments to China amid debt crisis "If China forced us to obtain loans, you could call it a trap, but every cent we have from China, those were decisions made in Sri Lanka and every loan given to us was on our own request." ALEXANDER VOROTNIKOV Expert, Russia's Project Office for the Development of the Arctic Op-ed in the Russian Defense Ministry’s Zvezda (Star) Weekly "But we should not forget about the pragmatism of the Chinese - they invest only when they can benefit from the partnership." MIKE POMPEO U.S. Secretary of State Remarks made following stop in Chile during Latin America trip "When China does business in places like Latin America, it often injects corrosive capital into the economic bloodstream, giving life to corruption, and eroding good governance." XU BU Chinese Ambassador to Chile Op-ed in Chile's El Mercurio in response to Pompeo's remarks "Pompeo’s body has entered the 21st century, but his mind is still in the 20th century, which is fixated on hegemony and the cold war mentality." ARRMANATHA NASIR Indonesian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson In a media briefing in Jakarta "From the beginning, Indonesia has stressed that Belt and Road projects have to be private sector-driven, a business-to-business cooperation, so it's profit-oriented. If it won't be profitable, it should not proceed. If there is any debt, it is a debt to the private sector" By the Numbers Data from IntelTrak, April 9 - 23. Regional Developments This section is only visible to premium subscribers to the Belt and Road Monitor. It includes granular information about the individual business deals, significant meetings, and important policy developments that took place during the previous two weeks.   To upgrade your subscription, please click here. If you enjoy our Belt and Road coverage, consider checking out IntelTrak: RWR's visual analytic tool that tracks and maps the global activities of Chinese and Russian companies in real time.   RWR Advisory Group is a Washington DC-based research and advisory firm that specializes in the risks present at the intersection of global business activity and national security concerns. Contact us to learn more.